Reading cancel timing without inventing motives

Cancel reason fields are uneven. Some people pick “too expensive” because it is the first option; others never answer. For subscription activity reviews, start with when people leave, not why.

Useful timing cuts:

• Days since first paid charge
• Days since last successful renewal
• Position in the billing cycle (day 1 vs. day 25 of a monthly plan)
• Distance from a price change or plan migration

In one Seoul-based membership product we reviewed, cancels clustered on day 26–28 of monthly cycles — right before the next charge — while support tickets about “value” peaked mid-cycle. The activity suggested billing dread more than a sudden mid-month disappointment, which changed which experiment the team ran first.

Resist writing a motive story until cancel timing, plan segment, and acquisition channel have been laid side by side. Motives can follow; timing should lead.